Evaluating the relationship between climate change, food prices, and poverty: empirical evidence from underdeveloped countries

Abstract

Climate change is a critical global issue with wide-ranging impacts, particularly on agriculture. This study examines how climate change influences food prices and poverty in underdeveloped countries. Rising temperatures and extreme weather events are diminishing agricultural productivity, leading to increased food prices and worsening poverty. The research involved developing a climate change index using an autoencoder model, which can learn the important features of data and translate it into a lower-dimensional representation. This index was based on variables such as carbon emission rates, annual average rainfall, forest cover, fossil fuel consumption, renewable energy use, and temperature changes. The relationship between this climate change index and food prices and poverty was analyzed using panel causality methods. Additionally, food prices from 2020 to 2030 were projected using various time series forecasting techniques to determine the most accurate predictive model. The findings indicate that while climate change does not significantly affect poverty when considering all countries as a panel, it does have a notable impact on food prices. This underscores the need for effective policy measures to address the effects of climate change on food costs. To mitigate these impacts, it is essential for policymakers to enhance agricultural resilience through sustainable practices and targeted interventions. Future research should expand the dataset and include a broader range of countries to gain a more comprehensive understanding of how climate change affects food prices and poverty.