Simulation of potential distribution and migration of Alnus spp. under climate change

Abstract

Plant migration is a well-known adaptation strategy of plant groups or species with evidence from historical to present observation and monitoring studies. Importance of N-2-fixing plants has increased in last decades. Alnus (alder) is an important plant group because of its nitrogen fixation ability. Alders are generally distributed in humid locations of boreal, temperate and tropical climate zones, where the nitrogen fixation is an important nitrogen source for other plants. To model the nitrogen fixation by alder, data about the global distribution of alder is absolutely required. In this study, a new method and model (Alnus-Distribution-Model (ADM)) are presented to predict the distribution of N2-fixing genus on global scale and its migration in the future by using climate change scenarios up to 2300. Results of the study showed that the potential distribution of Alnus spp. not only depending on solitary use of climate variables, soil types and vegetation groups but on combined effect of all tree influencing variables. The ADM also presented that the Alnus spp. potentially will migrate mainly northwards in the northern hemisphere. This study covered basic approaches to understand the combine effect of climate, soil and vegetation on modelling of plant distribution and migration.